Sentiment Data Suggests Caution?

The most recent sentiment data from our friend Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader.com shows that the retail investor is most confident in a market rally while the smart money or institutional investor is least confident.  While markets can continue to move higher, it is typically times like now when the risk/reward setup is least favorable for investors, at least as it relates to past market history.  However, what is really interesting is that the S&P 500 Index is on its longing winning streak without a signficiant pullback (to its 50-day average price) in the 82 year history of the index - over 93 days and counting.

Risk level:  HIGH

The Smart Money is 38% confident in a rally.

The Dumb Money is 75% confident in a rally.