More of the same?

As we conclude an interesting week in the market, we will point out that so far, this year has some resemblance to what happened in the beginning of last year. The stock market began both years in a steady uptrend. 2010 slipped a little in late January and early Feb with about a 10% correction, but then went on to rally for two months straight, (up to the late April highs). From that point on in 2010, we saw a lot of “chop” in the market through the summer until September when energy stocks finally pulled the market into the next leg up after August and through the rest of the year. This year, the uptrend continued straight though until mid-February, before slipping from roughly 1340 to 1250 on the S&P. The earthquake in Japan was part to blame for this. Since then, we have seen decent earnings reports accompanied with some very disappointing macro-economic data. The housing market took another step back and further dragged on hopes for better US GDP Growth. At the same time, unemployment data came in weaker than expected. The Greece/European debt turmoil hasn’t helped things either. Then just out this morning, orders for U.S.-made durable goods partially rebounded in May after a steep decline in April. Durable-goods orders rose 1.9% in May after a downwardly revised 2.7% fall in April. The increase in May was slightly stronger than expected. Transportation orders had the biggest increase last month. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.6%. Shipments rose 0.3% in May. Orders for core capital goods rose 1.6% in May after a 0.8% fall in April. Could it be that we are in for some more of the same “chop” through the summer? Hard to tell at this point, but so far it looks like things are shaping up that way.

Jan-Jun 2010


Jan -June 2011