Economy Still Producing Jobs

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed the September Employment Report, which showed 114,000 non-farm jobs were added during the month and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% from 8.1% the prior month.  This compares to the consensus expectation of 113,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 8.1%. While the number of non-farm jobs was essentially in line, the big surprise was the drop in the unemployment rate, which marks the lowest level in more than 40 months.

While the headlines associated with the BLS report will be met with enthusiasm as the August number was revised higher showing more jobs created, the underlying data continues to point to a tepid economic recovery. This employment report is at best acceptable, but it’s certainly not stellar. In other words, the economy is not quite out of the woods.

Per the BLS report, we find at least part of the drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8% was due to the continued decline in the number of people in the labor force.  More specifically, 211,000 people exited the labor force in the past month, which brings the trailing 12-month total to roughly 2.6 million people.

Move up http://i.forbesimg.com tMove downAverage hourly earnings in September for private non-farm private employees rose by only $0.07 to $23.58, and over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.8%. This compares to greater increases in food, energy and other input prices and recent data points to further inflation ahead. That will continue to pressure disposable income and consumer spending.

Next month’s report will be released on November 2^nd, just a few days before the Presidential election.